Auto China Report Part 3: Why owners are stuck with cars they don’t want
Part 3 of the Auto China Report deals with the depreciation disaster. Ever since the ripple became a wave, Chinese car salespeople have brushed resale questions off with a wave of the hand. The pitch was simple. The cars were so cheap and loaded with so much kit that depreciation did not matter. As if they were disposable. To the cash-challenged car owner, they certainly weren’t. Now five years later, South Africa's biggest motor dealer groups and finance houses have audited that first wave of 2021–2023 Chinese trade-ins. And it is a bloodbath.
Dealer giant Combined Motor Holdings spilled the beans in its August 2026 interim results. While national Chinese new-car market share jumped from 15% to 20%, pushing CMH new-vehicle volumes up 11% year on year, its used-vehicle sales crashed by 10%. WesBank confirmed the fallout on the banking side. Its retail vehicle finance profits plunged by 35% to a billion, while credit defaults jumped 26% to R2.6 billion. The bank blames weaker used-car values spurred by cheap new imports.
The trap springs shut at month 48. Thousands of Saffers who bought Chinese SUVs during the post-pandemic boom now want to trade them in. Instead of walking into a shiny new deal, the traders are offering them significantly less than what the car still owes the bank. Owners must either cough up tens of thousands of Rands out of their own pockets to settle the shortfall. Or stay married to the old dog as it falls out of warranty.
Family Car Used Value Retention November 2026
Chinese Family & 7-Seat SUVs
Vehicle Haval H6 Chery Tiggo 8 GWM Tank 300
Spec 2.0T 4WD 1.6TGDI Pro 2.0T 4x4
Trim Super Luxury Executive Super Lux
New 2023 R626K R575K R726K (’24)
Used 2026 R440K R370K R570K
Difference R186K R205K R156K
Retention 70.3% (3Y) 64.3% (3Y) 78.5% (2Y)
Traditional Family & 7-Seat SUVs
Vehicle Toyota RAV4 VW Tiguan Toyota Fortuner
Spec 2.0 AWD 1.4 TSI 2.8 GD-6 4x4
Trim GX-R CVT Allspace Life VX AT
New 2023 R679K R646K R896K (’24)
Used 2026 R530K R480K R750K
Difference R149K R166K R146K
Retention 78.1% (3Y) 74.3% (3Y) 83.7% (2Y)
China Deficit 7.8% 10.0% 5.2%
Death by Balloon and the Fake Deal Bath
So how do you end up owing the bank eighty grand more than your three-year-old whip is worth? Quite simple, actually. It starts with how Chinese cars are financed and discounted. Between 2021 and 2025, financed purchases of Chinese cars by buyers under 35 surged 423%. Most chose to leverage ridiculously low purchase prices by chasing the minimum monthly instalment, which meant signing 72-month contracts with zero deposit and a 30% to 35% balloon payment. So come month 36 or 42, you’ve barely paid off interest.
You still owe the bank 70% of the original window sticker price. And the car is now worth half the original value. That’s what you call a train smash. But as they say in the classics, that’s not all... Enter the ‘Deal Assistance’ sting. Because Chinese crossovers land in Durban harbour for R260K to R335K all duties paid and retail between R400K and over R500K, distributors sit on fat margins. So to move the metal, dealers dangle 40 to 60 grand in assistance on the car traded in, or cash-back sweeteners, while artificially maintaining the high official list price. So the buyer finances the entire bloated sticker price.
The wholesale trade is not fooled. WeBuyCars, getWorth, and TransUnion price used cars off the net discounted transaction price, minus a reasonable dealer cut. Worse still, Chinese brands quite literally eat their own young by launching stripped-out base models 18 months after launch. So when Omoda launched the C5 Elegance in 2023 at R508K and later dropped the C5 Street in at R330K, it properly nuked those early buyers. A 2023 C5 Elegance now retails for R290K. That means dealers offer R250K on trade-ins to leave the poor zero-deposit buyer drowning in a hundred-grand bath.
Bakkie Used Value Retention November 2026
Chinese Bakkies
Vehicle GWM P-Series JAC T8 BYD Shark 6 Changan
Spec 2.0TD 4x4 2.0CTi 4x4 1.5T PHEV Hunter REEV
LT AT Lux AWD Prem. CE 4x4 AT
New R615K (’23) R500K (’23) R960K (’25) R800K (’26)
Used 2026 R449K R310K R825K R690K
Difference R166K R190K R135K R110K
Retention 73.0% (3Y) 62.0% (3Y) 85.9% (1Y) 86.2% (1Y)
Traditional Bakkies
Vehicle Toyota Hilux Ford Ranger Isuzu D-Max VW Amarok
Spec 2.8 GD-6 4x4 2.0 BiT 4x4 1.9 Ddi 4x4 2.0 BiTDI
Legend AT Wildtrak AT LS AT Style 4Motion
New 2023 R866K R830K R629K R848K
Used 2026 R641K R582K R440K R585K
Difference R225K R247K R189K R263K
Retention 74.0% (3Y) 70.2% (3Y) 69.9% (3Y) 69.0% (3Y)
China Deficit 1.0% 8.2% 4.1% (1Y*) 3.8% (1Y*)
The Bakkie Bloodbath and the Traditional Hiding
Moving into the double-cab ring, the data splits in two. Credit where it's due: GWM's P-Series is the one Chinese bakkie that holds its own on used floors. 20 years of SA brand credibility certainly helps a R615K ’23 P-Series LT 4x4 sell used at R449K in 2026. That’s 73% retention, or just a percent shy of the benchmark Toyota Hilux 2.8 GD-6 Legend 4x4 and a handy bit clear of a Ford Ranger Wildtrak or Isuzu D-Max 1.9 LS at 70%. The next best Chinamen, JAC T8 and Foton Tunland G7, struggle at 62%.
Hold on to your hat. Step up to R800K to million-buck electrified Chinese bakkies, and early buyers are in for a shock. More like an electrocution, to be honest. For all its useless 320 kilowatts of wholly bakkie-ineffective electric power, the BYD Shark 6 PHEV launched so high and mighty at R960K in 2025, yet low-mileage 2025 Shark 6 units struggle to find eight hundred grand barely a year later across the WeBuyCars and Auto Trader platforms before the dealer’s commission. That’s almost a two-hundred-grand hiding in under a year. Makes most owners want to put that plug in the bath and jump in...
Changan's new 200 kW Hunter 2.0T REEV range-extender bakkie suffers precisely the same fate. Another R110K dip in the electric bakkie bath: sold for R800K in 2026, delivery-mileage and 4,000 km demo REEVs are already discounted to well under R690K. By comparison, a year-old 2025 Toyota Hilux Legend 4x4 holds 90% of its list price. High-tech Chinese bakkies pretty well lose value quicker than their batteries go flat on a towing trip. Which is awfully fast.
Exec & EV Used Value Retention November 2026
Chinese EVs, Hybrids & Electrified Bakkies
Vehicle BYD Atto 3 Haval Jolion BYD Shark 6 Changan
Spec Standard 1.5T HEV 1.5T PHEV Hunter REEV
Range EV Super Lux AWD Prem. CE 4x4 AT
New R768K (’24) R549K (’24) R960K (’25) R800K (’26)
Used 2026 R530K R395K R825K R690K
Difference R238K R154K R135K R110K
Retention 69.0% (2Y) 71.9% (2Y) 85.9% (1Y) 86.2% (1Y)
Traditional EVs, Hybrids
Vehicle Volvo EX30 Toyota Cross Toyota Hilux Ford Ranger
Spec Twin Motor 1.8 Hybrid 2.8 GD-6 4x4 2.0 BiT 4x4
Plus/Ultra XR HEV Legend AT (1Y) Wildtrak (1Y)
New R996K (’24) R545K (’24) R921K (’25) R905K (’25)
Used 2026 R820K R455K R829K R805K
Difference R176K R90K R92K R100K
Retention 82.3% (2Y) 83.5% (2Y) 90.0% (1Y) 89.0% (1Y)
China Deficit 13.3% 11.6% 4.1% 2.8%
Passenger Paralysis as Omoda, BYD Bleed
Across six cross-shopped passenger segments analysed in the Auto China Report, traditional stalwarts beat their Chinese rivals hands-down in every single category over three years. The closest fight is at the budget end. A 2023 Haval Jolion 1.5T Luxury will retain 72% and a ’23 Chery Tiggo 4 Pro Elite CVT 70%. Respectable indeed. Probably because R270K used SUVs are always in demand. Even so, among their direct legacy rivals, the Toyota Corolla Cross 1.8 XS retains a whopping 80% and a VW T-Cross 1.0 TSI DSG will get you 75% back to save 30 to 50 grand come trade-in time. In other words, more spent to buy a traditional car brings a hell of a lot more value back when it comes to sell.
Move above half a million Rand, and the Chinese hit a residual wall. Look at Chery's non-transferable warranty catch: its famous 10-year/million-kilometre engine cover applies only to the first owner. The second buyer gets the remnants of a 5-year/150,000 km warranty. That helps explain why a 2023 Chery Tiggo 8 Pro 1.6T Executive has free-fallen from R575K to R370K, or lost R205K at 64% retained value, versus a 2023 Toyota RAV4 GX-R at 78% or VW Tiguan Allspace that holds 74%.
The biggest resale value shock of all, you guessed it, lies in Chinese EVs and flashy coupé crossovers. The 2023 Omoda C5 Elegance lost 43% of its value, or R218K in three years, compared to a Kia Seltos CRDi EX, which lost just 26%. In the EV camp, a 2024 BYD Atto 3 Standard Range listed at R768K two years ago today sits on Cars.co.za for R530K. A third off in just 24 months. Eina!
The 5-Year Total Cost of Ownership Flip
The irony is that while the typical Chinese car buyer leverages that dream discount price as he or she obsesses over reaching the lowest possible monthly bank instalment, they wholly ignore the car’s five-year Total Cost of Ownership. Let's pit a R420K Chinese 1.5T DCT crossover against a R420K Toyota Corolla Cross 1.8 XS or a discounted Renault Duster 1.3T over five years and 100,000 km.
Start at the pumps. In real-world Mzansi, thirsty Chinese 1.5T and 1.6T engines mated to dual-clutch boxes suck 9.8 litres per 100 km against the Toyota or Renault’s 6.8 L/100 km. Over 100,000 km at R22.50 per litre, that 3-litre per hundred penalty comes back to burn you with an extra 3,000 litres of unleaded. You’ve just handed R67,500 in post-tax cash to the petrol attendant.
Now add the trade-in gap. Retaining 10% to 15% less value on a R420K car costs you another 42 to 63 grand at the trade-in desk, plus steeper insurance premiums to cover 90-day panel waits. The conclusion is brutal. The buyer who thought they scored a "free" panoramic roof and twin screens actually loses R110K to R130K over five years in burnt fuel and evaporated equity, and then the legacy car you opted against is still going to do another fifty grand better in the swing.
So do yourself a favour: do the math, or get someone who understands it to do it for you before you sign on that Chinese car dotted line.
Auto China Car Report 2026 Navigation
