The car of the future is actually up to you to decide
“Hey Mercedes, take me to the nearest charging bay.” The Mercedes offered me two options. Both 20 kilometres away in the next town. Now considering that I was looking for parking for my meeting at the biggest and people-friendliest mall in the region, that came as a quite surprise.
I saw countless yellow lined bays there. For senior citizens, disabled individuals, and parents with children, for instance. I’m sure there must be some for grey haired men with spotted dogs, too. But an EV charging bay? No way, Jose! Happily the EQS is among the least range anxious EVs out there, so it worked out OK. But what if I was driving one of those e-jaloppies with a range less than the 200 km I drove that day? The mind boggles!
Of course in time, like horsemen once laughed at motorists, the charging network will grow. But will EVs ever take over from gas cars? I hear you saying cars in rich countries like Denmark and affluent cities like Copenhagen are almost all electric these days. But what about the billion people around the world who must do without any electricity? How will they charge their EVs? Never mind right here, where power is never guaranteed?
EVs wilL be 30% of the car markeT – Toyoda
Moving on. There are apparently enough EV charging points in Chicago, Illinois in the good old US of A. But that same day I could not find a charger for the EQE I was driving in that blazing 40-degree southern hemisphere heat, literally hundreds of Tesla and other EV drivers were left stranded freezing in minus-40 degree temperatures up Chicago way. Their EVs refused to take power in the cold. All of them!
Talking Tesla, it’s about to pass five million cars sold over a very short period. Impressive, hey? But wait! Toyota is rapidly closing on 300 million vehicle sales over the years. A mark it will likely achieve this year. Now Akio Toyoda, grandson, and scion to the founder of Toyota, grew up in that environment. He ate, drank, slept, and lived cars, and only cars his, entire life. It shows
As brilliantly as he has achieved, Elon Musk on the other hand remains muddled by space exploration and social media conquest. And the rest. So is he really a car guy in the Toyoda-San fold? Well, not really. Which is why I take what Akio says as gospel, versus Elon’s one-third car guy opinion.
Rental companies are dumping EVs for ICEs again
The man shuffled aside from CEO to chairman on woke electric overreaction to his wonderfully pragmatic views on the future of the car last year, Toyoda has since proved 100% correct on his assumptions. On cue, initial EV demand is petering out as rapidly as Eskom shuts down power. The fallout is accelerating as carmakers backtrack en masse on bold electric plans based on market supposed to explode by now. But it’s flat.
Hire companies are dumping Teslas by the tens of thousands and going back to ICEs. Range anxiety and trip limitations are real. We can go on to battery creation and disposal concerns, ever present charging conundrums and surprises, and Euro 7 emissions rules capitulation. The fact than two-thirds of EV buyers won’t buy another, and that battery cars tend to explode by the minute, for no rhyme or reason. And much more. But let’s just leave it there.
Yet none of that has anything to with why EVs are failing. Yes, it must all play a part, but the real reason why battery cars will not succeed, is because nobody wants them. The car industry forgot to ask the market what it wanted before it went and told us what we will have. EVs quite simply do not sit amongst what the real anybody actually wants.
So what is the real car of the future?
Now, faced with mounting opposition from hybrids, e-fuelled combustion vehicles, hydrogen propulsion and the rest, EVs are coming under ever more pressure. So much so that my friend Toyoda this week that said EVs will only account for 30% of future mobility. He probably said under ten, but his PR guys likely played it safe.
Toyoda’s claims seem well founded. They come on the back of carmakers cutting back on electric car production, canning EV models, icing battery plans and firing thousands of EV staff. Yet they keep on punching their electric bible. Volkswagen for example on Wednesday warned that you will only be able to buy an electric Golf GTI within a couple of years. This latest GTI is the last ever gas one. Or at least that’s what they say.
Yet Toyoda’s prediction leaves me wondering who will buy all those electric VWs, Alfas, Audis, Dodges, Chryslers, and the rest? There’s also reason for concern how a three-quarter all-electric car industry may cope fighting over just a quarter of the market?
The car of the future is actually down to you!
The rest, Toyota, Mercedes, and BMW among others I can count on my fingers, promise to continue to offer a variety of mobility options and solutions. You will still be able to buy an ICE, a hybrid, or an EV in their shops. And soon fuel cells, hydrogen, and e-fuelled combustion cars too. Leaving the rest to fight over Akio’s 30%. Or my 10% of what all car sales EVs may one day represent.
So, depending on who you listen to, something isn’t quite adding up. Someone’s lying about the future of the motorcar and someone else has it right. The market will decide which way it goes in the end, so we’ll have to wait and see who’s right or wrong. All this will also decide which carmakers survive what may very well become a bloodbath, once the market, and only the market plots the actual future of mobility.
All of which means that the future of the car actually lies in your hands. Will you really go out and buy that EV as your next new car? Or will it be a conventional car after all? It’s like the vote. You really do have a say. Only this time you’re voting for the car of the future with your wallet.
So be sure you make the right call what new car you buy next. You’re also helping shape the future of the automobile! – Michele Lupini